Climate Projections
As we can use simulations to forecast the weather, we can also run climate models to understand how our climate will change in the future. Climate projections are available for the next decade through the end of the century (2100). By investigating different scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations in our atmosphere, we can assess our pathways of future climate, and identify associated impacts. The reason for differing scenarios is the uncertainty associated with human behavior and climate mitigation efforts. According to the simulations, annual average temperatures for this region are projected to be about 4°F warmer than the current averages (1976-2005) by mid-century (2050) and as much as 9°F warmer by the end of the century (2090). This would mean that the average annual temperature for Des Moines, IA would be like that of present-day Topeka, KS in 2050 and Stillwater, OK by 2090. The warmest days of the year will see a temperature increase by about 7°F by mid-century and the number of days warmer than 90°F will double. The area will gain about 30 days in the growing season length as the number of days we stay above freezing will increase. As the region has experienced an increase in precipitation over time, this trend is projected to continue into the future. Climate models predict winter and spring precipitation to increase by 10-15% across much of the Plains and Midwest by mid-century, relative to the current respective averages. Summer conditions will be drier overall, with a reduction of about 10%. Fall is projected to be slightly wetter (drier in Kansas and much of Missouri), with the least amount of certainty in these seasonal projections. Heavy rain events are projected to increase in intensity across the region. Even though the region is projected to get wetter overall, this will be punctuated by drought events.
Image of the change in growing season length at the middle of the century using a high emissions scenario. Source: https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/loca-viewer/
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